A prolonged period of severe weather is expected to impact the Midwest and Plains regions, bringing threats of large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes through early next week.
Current Situation
Severe weather has already begun affecting parts of the Midwest. On Thursday, confirmed tornadoes were reported in Swift County, Minnesota, causing destruction to a barn and part of a home. Near New Richmond, Wisconsin, another tornado was confirmed. Additionally, a rotating wall cloud prompted a tornado warning for downtown Minneapolis and its northern suburbs, where pea-sized hail was observed.
Forecast Overview
Thursday Night: Areas from east-central Minnesota to much of Wisconsin, northeast Illinois, northern Indiana, western Michigan, and northwest Ohio face the highest risk of severe weather. Cities like Chicago and Milwaukee are included in this zone. Potential hazards include golf ball-sized hail, damaging straight-line winds, and a few strong tornadoes (EF2 or greater).
Friday and Friday Night: The threat shifts to the Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys, encompassing cities such as Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Louisville, Nashville, and St. Louis. Expect damaging hail larger than golf balls, wind gusts over 75 mph, and the possibility of strong tornadoes. Widespread damaging winds capable of downing trees and causing power outages are a significant concern from southeast Missouri to southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and western and central Kentucky.
Saturday: Scattered severe storms could impact parts of the East, from New York state to North Carolina, as well as parts of the South, particularly Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.
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Sunday and Monday: The most significant threat of severe storms will move into the Central and Southern Plains, especially from Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas. While specific details are still emerging, these storms could bring a substantial risk of strong tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail. Cities like Dallas-Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Wichita should closely monitor forecasts.
Tuesday: Severe weather may shift farther east toward the Ark-La-Tex and mid-Mississippi Valley regions.
Meteorological Setup
A southward dip in the jet stream is introducing strong upper-level winds across the Plains and Midwest. This pattern allows warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico to flow northward, creating favorable conditions for severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, which are common in these regions during May.
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